UDF tipped to gain edge in Kerala as pre-poll survey heats up electoral battle
UDF is projected to secure between 69 and 81 seats in the 140-member Assembly, placing it comfortably ahead of the majority mark. The LDF is expected to win between 57 and 69 seats, while the NDA may be limited to just one to five seats.
Kochi : With barely a week left for the crucial Assembly elections in Kerala, a fresh pre-poll survey has intensified the political heat, predicting a potential victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The contest in the state is shaping up into a tight triangular fight involving the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), the UDF, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
According to the Manorama News-C Voter mega survey, the UDF is projected to secure between 69 and 81 seats in the 140-member Assembly, placing it comfortably ahead of the majority mark. The LDF is expected to win between 57 and 69 seats, while the NDA may be limited to just one to five seats. The survey reportedly covered around 90,000 respondents across all constituencies.
Southern Kerala sees mixed trends
In the southern region, particularly in Thiruvananthapuram district, the survey indicates a strong contest with possibilities for all three fronts. The BJP is seen having a chance in Nemom and Kazhakootam constituencies, with leaders like Rajeev Chandrasekhar and V Muraleedharan likely to play key roles in these high-stakes seats.
The LDF is projected to win 8 to 10 of the 14 seats in Thiruvananthapuram, while the UDF could secure two to four seats. The NDA may win one to three constituencies in the district. In Alappuzha, the LDF is expected to dominate with six to eight seats, while the UDF may get one to three. The NDA is unlikely to make gains here.
Pathanamthitta is expected to witness a shift, with the UDF likely to win three to five seats, reducing the LDF’s dominance compared to 2021 when it swept all five constituencies. Kollam, meanwhile, may not see a strong Left wave, though the LDF is still expected to edge ahead with five to seven seats against the UDF’s four to six.
Northern Kerala tilts towards UDF
In the Malabar region, covering districts like Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad, Malappuram and Kozhikode, the UDF is expected to gain a clear advantage. Out of 48 seats, the UDF may secure 25 to 34 seats, while the LDF could win between 14 and 23.
Kannur is likely to remain an LDF stronghold with six to eight seats, while Wayanad may tilt towards the UDF. Malappuram is expected to be a UDF bastion, possibly delivering a near clean sweep with strong backing from the Indian Union Muslim League. The UDF could secure 14 to 16 seats here with nearly 49% vote share.
Central Kerala shows varied patterns
In central Kerala, the LDF is projected to perform strongly in Palakkad and Thrissur, winning a majority of seats. However, the UDF appears dominant in Ernakulam, where it may win up to 12–14 out of 14 seats.
In Idukki and Kottayam, the UDF is also expected to lead, securing a majority of seats, while the NDA may struggle to open its account in most districts.
High-stakes final week
With the election campaign entering its final phase, all three fronts are intensifying their efforts to sway undecided voters. While surveys suggest an edge for the UDF, political observers caution that Kerala’s electorate has historically delivered tightly contested and often unpredictable verdicts.
The coming days are expected to witness aggressive campaigning, strategic alliances, and high-voltage political rhetoric as parties make their last push before voters head to the polls.
