Exit polls split verdict in West Bengal, BJP edge but TMC still in race
Kolkata : With polling for the West Bengal Assembly elections concluded, exit poll results have triggered intense political debate, offering mixed projections on who will form the next government. While most surveys indicate an edge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), at least one major poll suggests that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) could retain power.
The high-stakes election, considered one of the most closely watched in recent political history, has left analysts divided. In the 294-member Assembly, the majority mark stands at 147 seats.
According to the P-MARQ exit poll, the BJP is projected to secure a comfortable majority with 150 to 175 seats, crossing the magic number with ease. The TMC+ alliance is estimated to win between 118 and 138 seats, indicating a possible end to its rule despite a strong showing.
Similarly, the Matrize survey predicts BJP’s rise to power, placing it between 146 and 161 seats. The TMC+ is expected to secure 125 to 140 seats, suggesting a tight contest but with the BJP holding a slight advantage. Other parties could win between 6 and 10 seats.
However, the Peoples Pulse exit poll presents a contrasting picture, projecting a decisive victory for the TMC. It estimates 177 to 187 seats for the ruling party, indicating that Mamata Banerjee’s popularity remains intact and could propel her to a third consecutive term. The BJP, according to this survey, may be restricted to 95 to 110 seats.
Another projection by Chanakya Strategies suggests a close contest but tilts in favour of the BJP, predicting 150 to 160 seats for the party, while the TMC+ may secure 130 to 140 seats. Others are expected to win a handful of seats.
The divergence in exit poll findings has added to the suspense, with political observers pointing to a deeply polarised electorate. While several surveys hint at a potential shift in power, the conflicting data underscores the unpredictability of the outcome.
Most exit polls—barring Peoples Pulse—suggest that the BJP could make a historic breakthrough by forming the government in West Bengal for the first time. At the same time, the TMC remains firmly in contention, backed by strong regional support and leadership.
The final verdict, however, will only be clear on May 4, when votes are counted. Until then, the exit polls are likely to fuel speculation, debates, and political manoeuvring across party lines.
