Exit polls predict UDF comeback in Kerala, LDF likely to lose power
Thiruvananthapuram, : Exit polls for the Kerala Assembly elections indicate a strong comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with most surveys predicting a clear majority, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Pinarayi Vijayan is likely to lose power.
The projections were released after polling concluded in phases, alongside the final phase of voting in West Bengal. Kerala has a total of 140 विधानसभा seats, with the majority mark set at 70.
According to multiple leading agencies, the UDF appears poised for a decisive victory. The Axis My India exit poll has given the alliance the highest projection, estimating between 78 and 90 seats. It predicts the LDF securing 49 to 62 seats, while the BJP-led alliance is expected to win 0 to 3 seats.
Similarly, the Peoples Pulse survey conducted for NDTV forecasts a comfortable majority for the UDF, projecting 75 to 85 seats. The LDF is expected to secure between 55 and 65 seats, while the BJP+ alliance may struggle to cross three seats.
Another survey by P-MARQ suggests the UDF will cross the majority mark with 71 to 79 seats, while the LDF could be limited to 62 to 69 seats. The BJP+ is projected to win between 1 and 4 seats, with a marginal presence for others.
The Matrize poll also indicates a narrow but clear majority for the UDF, estimating 70 to 75 seats. It places the LDF in the range of 60 to 65 seats and BJP+ between 3 and 5 seats.
A “poll of polls” analysis averaging these projections suggests the UDF could secure around 77 seats, well above the majority mark, while the LDF may settle near 60 seats. The BJP+ alliance is expected to win around 2 seats, with minimal space for others.
If these projections hold true, it would mark a significant political shift in Kerala, where the LDF had created history in the previous election by retaining power for a consecutive term. The current trends point towards a possible anti-incumbency wave against the ruling front.
Political observers note that voters may have favoured change this time, giving the UDF an opportunity to return to power with a strong mandate. Meanwhile, the BJP continues to face challenges in expanding its footprint in the state, with limited seat projections.
However, the final outcome will only be known when votes are counted on May 4. Until then, exit polls offer an early indication of the electoral mood, but their accuracy remains subject to verification.
