Exit polls predict big win for BJP–Shinde Sena alliance in high-stakes BMC election

Mumbai : Two exit poll surveys have predicted a decisive victory for the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in the prestigious Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, indicating a possible shift in power in Asia’s richest civic body. The surveys suggest that while the reunited Thackeray cousins managed to consolidate Maratha and Muslim votes, North and South Indian voters backed the BJP in large numbers, tipping the balance in favour of the ruling alliance. Youth voters and women, too, are said to have largely supported the BJP.

According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP–Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) alliance is poised to secure between 131 and 151 seats in the 227-member BMC, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 114. If the prediction holds, it would mark a significant political milestone for the BJP, which has never been able to install its own mayor in the BMC despite being a dominant force in Maharashtra politics.

The same survey suggests that the reunion of Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray after nearly two decades may not yield substantial electoral dividends. The Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance is projected to win only 58–68 seats. The Congress, which entered into a last-minute alliance with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), is expected to secure just 12–16 seats at best.

The BMC election, held after a gap of seven years, witnessed intense campaigning marked by shifting alliances, aggressive political strategies, and appeals to Marathi pride. The JVC exit poll has forecast 59 ward victories for the Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance, while the Sakal poll predicts 119 seats for the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance and 75 seats for the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction. Sakal has also projected that the Congress may fail to cross the 20-seat mark.

Another exit poll conducted by the Democracy Times Network for the 2026 BMC elections projects a clear majority for the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance, with 142 seats out of 227. According to this survey, the opposition alliance comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), MNS and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) may win around 58 seats, while the Congress–VBA alliance could secure about 19 seats. The remaining eight seats are expected to go to other parties and independents.

DV Research, meanwhile, has suggested a more competitive scenario but still sees the ruling alliance in the lead, projecting 107–122 seats for the BJP–Shiv Sena combine. It estimates 68–87 seats for the Uddhav Thackeray faction, 18–25 seats for the Congress, 2–4 seats for Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and 8–15 seats for others.

As per vote share estimates, the BJP-led alliance is projected to secure around 41% of the votes, while the Thackeray brothers’ combine may get 33%. The Congress is estimated at 13%, the NCP at 3%, and others at around 10%.

Polling for all 227 wards concluded on Wednesday, and counting of votes will take place on Thursday. With Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis leading the BJP campaign, the party has made no secret of its ambition to finally claim the mayor’s post. A victory, as predicted by exit polls, would mark a historic breakthrough for the BJP in Mumbai’s civic politics.