heavy Rainfall alert: The Indian meteorological department has declared the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala on Sunday three days ahead of the normal onset of June 1. IMD issued heavy Rainfall alert in this state, issued orange alert.
Southwest monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, most parts of Kerala, some parts of south Tamil Nadu, some parts of Gulf of Mannar and some more parts of southwest Bay of Bengal on Sunday.
Thus, southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala on Sunday against the normal date of June 1. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of central Arabian Sea, reaming parts of Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, some parts of Karnataka, and some more parts of south and Central Bay of Bengal, some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal and northeastern states during next 3-4 days.
In the last five years, Kerala monsoon onset was declared on May 29 in 2018. In 2017, the onset was declared on May 30 and May 31 in 2021. In its bulletin last fortnight, IMD had forecast May 27 as the early likely onset and said that the previous 17 operational forecasts have been proved correct in all year from 2005-2021 have been correct except in 2015.
Meanwhile, the IMD’s morning heavy rainfall alert for Kerala has warned of widespread and isolated heavy rainfall till June 1. IMD has issued yellow alerts for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam and Idukki on Sunday and Monday. Thrissur also is on yellow alert on Sunday.
The isolated heavy rainfall alert for 7-11 cm continues for Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram and Kozhikode on May 31. On June 1, Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod were on yellow alert.
This heavy rainfall alert is due to the influence of westerly winds from Arabian Sea over the south peninsular India in lower tropospheric levels. Thunderstorms with lightning are very likely to occur at isolated places in Kerala and Lakshadweep till June 1.
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Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph likely to prevail along and off south Kerala coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea till May 30. An indigenously developed state of the art statistical model with a model error of 4 day is used for predicting the southwest monsoon. The six predictors used in the models are:
-Minimum temperatures over northwest India
-Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula
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-Outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over south China Sea
-Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean
-Upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean
-Outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.
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