Third Wave Covid-19 May Hit India by Mid Next Month, Peak in September: SBI Report says

New Delhi: The much-feared third wave of coronavirus is likely to hit India by mid-August, while cases may peak in September, a report said on Monday, even as the second wave is not yet over in the country. The report titled ‘Covid-19: The race to finishing line’, published by SBI Research, stated that vaccination is the only saviour as global data shows that, on an average, the third wave peak cases are around 1.7 times the peak cases at the time of second wave.

“India has achieved its second wave peak on 7 May 2021 and going by the current data, India can experience cases around 10,000 somewhere around 2nd week of July. However, the cases can start rising by the second fortnight of August! However, based on historical trends, the cases can start rising by the second fortnight of Aug 2021, with peak cases at least a month later,” the SBI Ecowrap report released today said.

Global data shows that on average third wave peak cases are around 1.7 times the peak cases at the time of the second wave, the report said. The cases in India are now hovering around 45,000 from the past 7 days, which indicates that the second wave is not yet over and is exhibiting a fat tail, it said. The data shows that in the first wave as well, the cases declined gradually, with cases around 45,000 for 21 days before any meaningful decline in daily cases.

The report said India has seen 51 cases of Delta Plus variant in 12 states by end-June. New cases in the top 15 districts, which are mostly urban increased again in Jun 2021. “But the good thing is that their fatality rate has been constant for three months,” it said. The report says the overall vaccination in rural areas remains low. India has started giving more than 40 lakh vaccination doses per day and as of July 3, cumulative doses stand at 34.5 crore.

Certain states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan have vaccinated a greater proportion of the rural population when compared to others. In the case of the urban population, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Odisha have performed well, it said.